I've been watching the 2004 SUMMARY concert with News & KAT-TUN and not long ago I won the 2005 SUMMARY concert pamphlet off of ebay (I'll be making an entry about that eventually), which has got me thinking about Hey! Say! JUMP's upcoming SUMMARY concert.
I can picture HSJ's SUMMARY to be similar to the 2004 SUMMARY, as just like then it's another Summer Olympic Games year and HSJ will have just released their 3rd single and about four years ago around the same time News had released their 3rd single. The only big difference I see is that there currently is no extremely popular Junior group like KAT-TUN for HSJ to share the SUMMARY with. But as HSJ is such a large group they don't need another group to help them with this kind of concert with the Juniors there with them as well. I will not be surprised to see a Junior unit be given the same kind of spotlight Ya-Ya-Yah had for that concert though. My bet will be on the Hashimoto-trio as they seem to be one of the more popular Junior groups and JE hasn't been shy with giving them screen time. Maybe then they'll get a group name.
Something I noticed between the release patterns of News' first year as a group is that HSJ's release schedule looks to be almost mirroring it. While there is a difference of 2-3 weeks for some of the releases they're still all rather close with everything but their 3rd single being released in the same month. And also like News, HSJ's SUMMARY concert is taking place around the same time their 3rd single is coming out.
News Nippon (07NOV2003)
Ultra Music Power (14NOV2007)
NEWS Nippon 0304 (07APR2004)
Hey! Say! JUMP Debut & First Concert Ikinari! in Tokyo Dome (30APR2008)
Kibou ~Yell~ (12MAY2004)
Dreams come true (21MAY2008)
Akaku Moyuru Taiyou (11AUG2004)
Your Seed (23JUL2008)
I'm really hoping that the wait between the 3rd and 4th HSJ single will not be as half as long as that for News as their 4th single didn't come out until March of 2005, though it was only a month wait after that for their first album. Also the break for News was probably because of Kanjani∞'s debut in August and they had to share members. HSJ doesn't have that problem so I think after this next single they'll most likely break away from the kind of release schedule News had.
Now on to guessing who gets to debut next of the Juniors. To help I made a list of JE acts from Tokio on and when they debuted. I've marked the groups that debuted in conjunction to the World Volleyball Tournament as I have the feeling JE will keeping it as a tradition to debut a group every 3-4 years going by past debuts.
Tokio (September 1994)
V6 (November 1995) VB
Kinki Kids (July 1997)
Arashi (November 1999) VB
Tackey & Tsubasa (September 2002)
News (November 2003) VB
Kanjani∞ (August 2004)
KAT-TUN (March 2006)
Hey! Say! JUMP (November 2007) VB
I honestly would not be surprised if there is no new group to debut this year. JE already has a full plate with it's current talent roster and from looking at the debut years of them it would be no surprise if they decided not to do another debut. Of course if there isn't a debut this year it looks like there's bound to be one in 2009.
For which group to debut I'm hoping it will be one of the Junior groups that have been around for a few years. I would not be surprised at a Question? debut. Even though JE has Tokio to be their rock group, Tokio has been around for over 10 years now and I'm sure JE will want another rock group to take over for them. Plus it will be a break from the pop groups they've been putting out in the recent years. Of course they could always surprise everyone and debut a duo or solo artist instead as it's been quite some time since they tried that. Though I'm not sure who they would debut except maybe B.A.D. as they've had quite a bit of exposure thanks to Gokusen 3.
It's also a bit out of personal desire as I'm really scared that the older Junior groups like Question?, A.B.C. and Kis-My-Ft2 are going to slowly be phased out. I really don't want to see that happen as I really like them and think that they deserve to debut. Though I have a feeling there is little chance that all of them will debut and that perhaps the only way for some of the members of these groups to debut is to be shuffled into new groups. That's kind a why I wouldn't mind it if Butoukan ends up debuting even though both A.B.C. and Kis-My-Ft2 will lose a member each if it happens.
The unnamed Junior groups probably still have some time before they can be seen as debut ready. HSJ took a lot of the more popular Juniors so the only really known Juniors left are those who picked up some kind of following from the groups that were disbanded like, Shoon, Hashimoto, Kyomoto and Shintarou, so the interest in the other Juniors needs to be built up. That and HSJ is holding the 'youth' spot, and will for some years to come with their ages, and JE doesn't like to compete with itself. So until the HSJ members grow up a bit more I don't think we'll be seeing another young group for a while, perhaps in 3-4 years when it would be about time for the next World Cup Volleyball debut group to be formed.
Of course JE is hardly the easiest agency to predict, I don't think anyone was really expecting Hey! Say! JUMP, so it's really mostly guess work. I guess I'll know how right or wrong I am when these things happen.
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