I've been thinking about the recent happenings in the Johnny's Junior world and have decided it's time to do a Let's speculate entry again.
With Nakayama Yuma w/B.I. Shadow finally showing definite proof that they are not a fully debuted Johnny's group I think it's a good time to look at the possible impact it could have on things.
While taking a walk a couple of hours ago it dawned on me that NYC boys is actually rather like past temporary volleyball support Kitty GYM. Yuma could equal Golf & Mike, with being the not quite popular member(s) of the main group that is there to ride off the popularity of the other member(s). And Yamada Ryosuke & Chinen Yuri are like Yamashita Tomohisa, as the one(s) that are already popular and will make sure that people will take notice and buy the single. BIS of course are like Kitty, the backdancers to the group, but they get to fare off much better than Kitty in that they are actually doing more than just being the backdancers and get to sing, get some screen time and be featured on the cd release. In fact it's rather suspicious, IMHO, how even the naming conventions for the two groups aren't that far off either.
I think the main difference is that there's a YuBIS track and then the rest being NYC boys tracks for the singles, unlike the GYM cd which had GYM tracks and tracks for Golf & Mike and Yamapi. But I think YuBIS was more for Yuma's drama and Johnny's figured as both the drama and the event would be going on at the same time they might as well merge the two together.
And this all makes sense. What doesn't make sense for this release was that Johnny's did intially dub it, or let the news agencies report it as a new unit full debut when in the end it wasn't. It wouldn't be the first time the news got things wrong for this kind of thing, but until the Junior concert this week it was all rather vague with mixed signals and messages about the debut. And if Johnny's did plan on making Yubis a full debut it seems weird that they're going back on it so quickly.
I mean when NEWS released NEWS Nippon they were called a temporary unit and it wasn't until Johnny's called them a success and announced they would have a second single to be their official debut single (which makes placing the actual debut date for the group a bit hard) was it known the group had fully debuted. Then with the Junior Hey! Say! 7 they were only known as a temporary unit until they debuted with twice the members as Hey! Say! JUMP. So why Johnny's didn't do the same thing, so they could just pass YuBIS off as just another temporary unit when they decided against making this be a full debut, I don't think we'll ever know. Though I know I for one wish I could find out.
In the end though I don't think the release was a waste at all. I mean I would have loved to have seen a new Hey! Say! JUMP single instead, but it also so it seems to be a natural progression to have the group begin getting separated from being volleyball supporters about this time as well. And I have the feeling that we won't see the group return to the role again after this year, though the sub-groups or another special unit with HSJ members might be involved again.
And for YuBIS, I think this was a great oppurtunity for them. I mean how many people would bother even knowing who Yuugo was if not for this release and the belief this would be a full debut? Probably not that many. In fact I've seen many more people mentioning the boys, for good and ill, than before the debut and I think they've come far with leaving their mark on people's minds on who they are. And while they may not have been the main act of Tuesday's concert, they were still part of the group of Juniors that got a good amount of time on stage. Not to mention it looks like Nakajima Kento and Kikuchi Fuma are on their way to becoming regulars for the Junior Coliseum segment on Shounen Club, which is a big thing as not many of the younger Juniors are regulars for that segment and it means more screen time as well as more experience being on stage for them.
Which is another thing that makes me think that not debuting might be better for YuBIS. Not many of them have much experience, nor were they really set up to gain much. I mean HSJ got two variety programs when they debuted and spots on Hyakushiki so they could get used to be on camera and be more visible. YuBIS had nothing like that lined up at all, except for Yuugo being on School Kakumei, which was something that could have been decided outside of the whole YuBIS situation. The most the rest of them had along those lines was Yuma with all the drama promotion he's done. So while I do believe the boys have real potential, I also believe they need to develop it more before I think they can be considered debut ready as a group.
I also don't think the 'it's not fair' argument holds too much water in all this. I mean I'm pretty sure any member of Kis-My-Ft2 or A.B.C. has been a Junior longer than the time YuBIS has combined. And then there's the older Juniors like Music Academy and un-debuted members of the 4TOPS that will probably never be debuted even though they've been in Johnny's for a long time and most don't get nearly as much exposure as the younger Juniors do. Which goes to prove that all's fair in love, war and Johnny's debuts as far as Johnny's is concerned.
I also think this lack of debut could be used in Johnny's favor for the next couple of debuts. Since YuBIS aren't actually debuted then that means there have only been 18 Johnny's debuts, so the next group will be 19 now, not 20. If my hopes are right and Kis-My-Ft2 debuts next (as currently they are the Junior group that have the most going for them) in the next year or so then they can be number 19 and the group after them, which should be the next volleyball group if Johnny's keeps the every 4 years debut a new group schedule, will be 2011. And I think this will make the promotion team happy that they can use that as a way to call attention to the group by making a big deal about it. I just hope they don't get any crazy ideas and make a 20 member unit for it or something. For while that would still be much smaller than something like the unit female idol unit AKB48, it still wouldn't be a good idea, IMHO, as they seem to have enough trouble finding work for HSJ's ten members as it is.
But yea, I'm still placing my hopes and bets that it will be Kisumai to debut next. And not just because I'm a big fan. As I mentioned they have a lot going on for them now that is helping build up towards something. I mean Tamamori Yuta was a Gokusen boy, even if only for the final special and movie, but the series even at the end is still popular. Then the group was chosen to do PLAYZONE after Shounentai retired from it last year, which so far has given them their first cd release with the soundtrack of the musical coming out next week and could possibly have a DVD release of it as well sometime in the future. And of course the recent announcement of solo concerts. Of course one could argue that Ya-Ya-Yah had a lot of the same thing going for them as well, but it could be argued back that it did end up with a debut, just not for the whole group. And I'm not beyond thinking the same could happen to Kisumai, but I still hold hope, as KAT-TUN was able to debut as a group that Kisumai could share the same luck and repeat that. And that is the fangirl in me speaking for that last line. ^__^;
And why I think they have the best chance over some of the other Junior groups is that Johnny's is giving them these chances to prove themselves successful. I mean they do share quite a bit in common with A.B.C.-Z with being a group that's been around for some time, even taking member and name changes into account, so they've both built up strong fanbases but it's clear that after the Kis-My-Ft2 & A.B.C.-Z joint concert Johnny's has been favoring Kisumai more, with giving them more to do that would put them in spotlight. Like having them support Uchi Hiroki for his Tokyo concerts which included doing quite a bit of the MCing, Tamamori's drama role and etc. And most of the other Junior groups are still rather new and are still in the process of getting people to know who they are just beginning to build up a sizable fanbase.
I think I see A.B.C.-Z eventually going the MA route once Hashimoto Ryosuke gets taken out of the group. Which I don't think is a terrible thing, though it means fans will see less of them if all they're doing is back dancing for the older Johnny's acts, doing plays/musicals and do some behind the stage things like MA does now. But at least they wouldn't disappear all together and it should be a gradual progression to this. Because if they are not going to debut Johnny's is not going to keep them on Shounen Club forever, as could be seen with Yamashita Shoon post-Yax3. Though I am sure Hasshi will leave the group before this begins as Johnny's has been giving him a good amount of exposure post-HSJ debut and I always felt him joining A.B.C. was to help him build experience and to learn from the group, not to be a permenant member in it.
The other groups will probably still be going through the usual motions for Junior groups. Some will stick, others won't and everything will be chaotic for a while when the next new group debuts as Juniors groups are broken up with their fans' hearts for the debut. For the older boys of those groups it will be a tough choice between still going on like Shoon or deciding to just take another route completely like Ayukawa Taiyou. The younger boys should be fine as they will get reshuffled into new groups and there will still be time for them to make it to the next debut. Probably a good example of this is Kisumai's Yokoo Wataru, who was a part of K.K.K.ity that was disbanded for NEWS (when he was 17), ended up in Kis-My-Ft that became eventually Kis-My-Ft2 and looks like he just might get his chance to debut as well in the end if things keep up for them. And there's also Hasshi, who seems like he's a very likely candidate for debuting with the next new unit after his old unit, J.J. Express was disbanded for Hey! Say! JUMP. The only downside to it is that for YuBIS fans there is a chance the full group may not get picked for the same debut, but as shown there are examples of Juniors about their ages when the next new unit debut should come up that are far from being out of the running for debut. They just had to hang in there and keep working with the breaks they were given.
And that's mainly what I've been thinking of so far about the whole matter. I guess I can't get too broken up about the lack of debut for YuBIS, as I don't see it as an end for the group and it did help get more people interested in them. Also because they are still young they will have other chances if they keep going and Johnny's keeps supporting them.
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